WEDNESDAY, April 3, 2024 -- A prediction model and nomogram can predict the risk for five-year recurrence-free and melanoma-specific survival, according to a study published in the April issue of The Lancet Oncology.

Robert C. Stassen, M.D., from the Erasmus Medical Centre Cancer Institute in Rotterdam, Netherlands, and colleagues developed a tool to predict patient-specific outcomes in people with melanoma rather than classification according to disease stage. Patients with confirmed primary melanoma were included in the development cohort (4,071 patients), and external validation was performed (4,822 patients). In patients with stage pT1b or higher melanomas, a prognostic model and nomogram were developed to predict five-year recurrence-free survival.

The researchers found that five-year recurrence-free survival was 73.5 percent and five-year melanoma-specific survival was 86.5 percent in the development cohort. The corresponding estimates were 66.1 and 83.3 percent in the validation cohort. Six prognostic factors were included in the final model: sentinel node status, Breslow thickness, presence of ulceration, age at sentinel lymph node biopsy, primary tumor location, and maximum diameter of the largest sentinel node metastasis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.80 and 0.81 for prediction of recurrence-free and melanoma-specific survival, respectively, in the development cohort. External validations showed good calibration, with AUCs of 0.73 and 0.76, respectively.

"The model that we developed not only offers patient-specific risk predictions for recurrence-free and melanoma-specific survival but will also enable physicians to calculate the risk of recurrence at which it is judged necessary to start adjuvant therapy," the authors write.

Several authors disclosed ties to the pharmaceutical industry.