WEDNESDAY, Sept. 10, 2025 (HealthDay News) -- An improved tool that includes 14 predictors and two statistical terms offers enhanced accuracy for predicting the future risk for invasive melanoma, according to a study published online Sept. 10 in JAMA Dermatology.

David C. Whiteman, M.B.B.S., Ph.D., from QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute in Herston, Australia, and colleagues conducted a population-based prospective cohort study involving 10 years of data following a baseline survey conducted in 2011 among individuals aged 40 to 69 years who were melanoma-free at baseline. A total of 31 candidate variables collected at baseline were identified a priori as potential predictors of future risk for invasive melanoma.

During 401,356 person-years of follow-up among 41,919 eligible participants, 706 new invasive melanomas were identified. The researchers found that 14 predictors were retained in the best-fitting model (age, sex, ancestry, nevus density, freckling density, hair color, tanning ability, adult sunburns, family history, other cancer prior to baseline, previous skin cancer excisions, previous actinic keratoses, smoking status, and height), in addition to two statistical terms (age squared and age-by-sex interaction), yielding discriminatory accuracy of 0.74. At a screening threshold selecting the top 40 percent of predicted risk, the Youden index was optimized, capturing 74 percent of cases (number needed to screen, 32).

"This cohort study has identified an improved tool that offers enhanced accuracy for predicting the future risk of invasive melanoma compared with existing tools," the authors write.

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